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American Oaks / CashCall Mile Day Supporting Stakes Analysis

In addition to the co-featured CashCall Mile (GI) (race #7) and American Oaks (GI) (race #9), a dynamite eleven race card on Saturday, July 5 also features the $100,000 Hollywood Juvenile (GIII) (race #3); the $300,000 Vanity Handicap (GI) (race #5); and the $300,000 Triple Bend Handicap (GI) (race #10).

Race 3: Hollywood Juvenile (GIII)
$300,000 - six furlongs
Post time: 1:02 p.m. PST
Juvenile Past Performances
Program # Horse Win Place Show
4 Azul Leon 4.20 3.00 2.40
8 Making Dreams   19.00 9.00
5 Fassnacht     3.40

Pgm. # Horse Commentary M/L
1 Conclusive Conclusive has been scratched from the Hollywood Juvenile. SCR
2 Nochangenweather Nochangenweather has been scratched from the Hollywood Juvenile. SCR
3 Let'spickupthepace Mike Mitchell trainee has been third in both his outings, finishing behind Seismometer and Jack Flash in the debut. He has some good early foot, but looks like he may be comfortable sitting just behind the speedballs. Losing the meet's leading rider is usually a drawback, but when you pick up Garrett Gomez, it's never a bad thing. The price should be decent because he has yet to win, but remember the lone maiden in last Saturday's Landaluce Stakes for the 2-year-old fillies came away with the victory. 5-1
4 Azul Leon The Doug O'Neill / Rafael Bejarano connections are sure drive plenty of players to the windows here. The maiden score back on May 8 was nice as he rallied from midpack with a solid final furlong. He must have had a minor issue after that race, because he didn't have a published work for over a month. Has come back to his regular schedule since, though. The race will tell if he is ready to take on the stretchout in distance and up in company. Would like to see at least 4-1 to make a win wager. 9-5
5 Fassnacht This is the first of two from the Mike Harrington barn. He was only a 1 1/4 lengths behind Azul Leon in the debut, but a rough trip in the Willard proctor made his race look worse than it was. The latest was against maiden Cal-breds, so it would have been nice to see him get the win, particularly as the 6-5 favorite. He's already developed a come-from-behind style that can lead itself to troubled trips. Definitely gets help from his sire Lion Heart, who was 3 for 3 at age 2. Dam was 1 for 7 at 2, didn't win until going 1 1/16 miles. Bottom line: should appreciate the six furlongs and is a threat if the speed backs up. 12-1
6 Seismometer Actually has two wins to date, but got DQ'ed from his first victory after a bad start. He showed no ill effects, coming right back to win in his next race. So, he's technically undefeated at Hollywood, going wire to wire in both races. He took a step back when shipped to Golden Gate for the Lost in the Fog stakes. Willing to give him another chance, as long as he doesn't get caught up in too big a speed duel and get burned up as he goes six furlongs for the first time. Dam has one other foal to race, a winner of a maiden claimer at Del Mar at age two. 4-1
7 Jack Flash Harrington's second runner shouldn't be confused by a colt of the same name who ran in the Kentucky Derby about a decade ago. This colt got his maiden win via the disqualification of Seismometer in a late April race. Harrington stepped him into the Willard Proctor, where he ran fairly flat, lacking the stretch fortitude he showed in his first outing. Workouts are interesting, as it looks like he was pushed a little harder in the most recent pair. Thinking he needs to break well to keep interested. An intriguing play in a very good betting race. 8-1
8 Making Dreams The second in the race from Walther Solis broke it's maiden going two furlongs at Santa Anita back in early April. Didn't resurface until the May 25 Willard Proctor, where he checked in a non-threatening fifth of seven. Solis makes a couple of changes: adding blinkers and switching to jockey Jose Valdivia, who is just short of 1,000 career wins as of this writing. Homebred gelding should show speed, but it's difficult seeing him in the mix late. 20-1
9 Swiss Alpine Swiss Alpine steps up to take on bigger fish after taking on lesser in state bred and claiming ranks in three starts to date. That fact will likely cause some to shy away from him, but he's shown improvement with each race, and there's no reason to believe he will suddenly step back. That bullet six furlong move really stands out since he hasn't been a particularly good work horse. Dam was winless in five starts at two, has thrown a pair of 2-year-old winners. Looking for 5-1 or so to be the value play of the race. 8-1
10 Turbo Call Last of the Solis-trained trio broke his maiden in a two furlong race in late March, so he's had a three-month plus gap since his lone start. Drawing the far outside post didn't help either, since the other early speed is just inside of him in the gate. Could easily get hung out wide going into the turn. Any way you slice it, has the look of a minor player. 20-1

Race 5: Vanity Invitational Handicap (Grade I)
$300,000 - 1 1/8 miles
Post time: 2:06 p.m. PST
Vanity Past Performances
Program # Horse Win Place Show
3 Zenyatta 2.60 2.10 2.10
1 Tough Tiz's Sis   3.40 2.80
4 Silver Swallow     4.00

Pgm. # Horse Commentary M/L
1 Tough Tiz's Sis Always game filly will try to win the "Zenyatta Invitational" as Bob Baffert jokingly referred to the race last week. That remark aside, Baffert has a distaffer that always tries her best and, if anyone in the field won't yield easily, it's her. Though she hasn't won at the distance, she's never been worse than second at Hollywood, so maybe those factors can balance each other out. She has the tactical advantage over Zenyatta since she does sit closer to the pace, but will still have to have something to hold off the closers' onslaught. Will turn in her usual good effort, but not sure it's good enough? 7-2
2 Silver Z Silver Z takes a big step up in class after the second level allowance win going seven furlongs. She's very lightly raced for a 6-year-old, with just nine starts. And most of those have come against California breds, so she's definitely jumping into deep waters here. One plus is that she probably is the fastest of the field and could find herself alone on the lead. She has won going two turns before, and does have a liking for the Hollywood surface. From a class perspective, she looks out of place, but remember Mast Track alone on the lead in the Gold Cup last week? 15-1
3 Zenyatta Not much you can say about an undefeated filly that just seems to be getting better with every start. Her sister, Balance, was second in this race last year. Since breaking her maiden here at Hollywood last November, Zenyatta has been nothing short of sensational, defeating the best the distaff division has to offer with relative ease. Only question is the nine furlongs, which she has never tried, but with the way she closes with such power, it's hard to see that being an obstacle. She's not going to offer any value, so it might be best to just watch and appreciate her talent. 2-5
4 Silver Swallow Like the other "Silver" horse, Silver Swallow is taking a big step up in class from entry level allowance to Grade 1 company. She ran pretty well last year, finishing second to the likes of Rags to Riches and Tough Tiz's Sis in graded stakes, and did so with only a maiden win to her name. Trainer Bruce Headley must feel there is a reason to be in the race, and she could be on the improve after getting the winter off. Seems unlikely to challenge the more accomplished foes, but could round out the superfecta. 20-1
5 Sealy Hill While there are a few in this race that might have entered to beef up the field, Sealy Hill didn't ship from her base at Woodbine in Canada to just take up space. She's been here long enough to get a work in over the Hollywood track, and as snappy as it was, she should have no problems in that respect come race day. With three added money wins in Canada, she's actually the top money earner in the race. Looks to be with Zenyatta near the back in the first part, and should close well also, but it might be tough for her to match strides with that one in the stretch. A very logical choice to round out the exacta or trifecta. 6-1
6 Fleetheart Fleetheart had a nice start to her career, winning her first four races while on or near the lead. Something has happened since, though; she's broken a little worse in the last five starts and has never gotten into any of her races. Maybe it was the fact that they were all stakes races, which doesn't bode well for her here. She's been off for six weeks, and her works say she is still in it mentally, but she just doesn't look to be up to the task against some very talented fillies. 20-1
7 Andmoreagain Andmoreagain will have to show a lot more than she has since coming to the U.S. in the autumn of 2007. Winless in three starts here, she has run only once in 2008. Ran four times in England prior, and didn't really do anything there that would make you take a longer look. Seems overmatched and would be a huge surprise. 50-1

Race 10: Triple Bend Invitational Handicap (Grade I)
$300,000 - 7 furlongs
Triple Bend Past Performances
Post time: 4:50 p.m. PST
Program # Horse Win Place Show
5 Street Boss 3.40 2.40 2.10
1 Elite Squadron   3.20 2.40
3 Tropic Storm     2.40

Pgm. # Horse Commentary M/L
1 Elite Squadron Kentucky shipper will have to use his considerable speed if he wants to secure a good spot early. With Desert Code, Tropic Storm and High Standard just to his outside, it could be a wild scramble for the lead. This colt proved he could set some wicked fractions when he went wire to wire in the Churchill Downs (GII) on Derby Day. That might have been his peak, as he tailed off a little bit in the Aristides (GIII) at the end of May. Solid set of works since then should have him back in the right form. As long as he handles the east to west ship, he could be the upsetter in a very competitive race. 5-2
2 Desert Code Turns back to the sprints after trying to stretch his speed in a couple of graded races. Almost got the job done, too, at a big price in the Mervyn LeRoy (GII). Except for a two-race blip this past winter, he's been very consistent overall. Will be in the mix early, but doesn't seem to have the gate speed that some of the others do. Might be better served to lay just off the lead and try to pick up the pieces late. Trainer David Hofmans is looking to break out of a 0 for 22 slump at the meet. 5-1
3 Tropic Storm Favored in his last three starts, Tropic Storm won only one of those starts. He has the ability to race on the lead, but is more effective if he is not on the front end. With just one start in a graded stake, he needs to continue to improve to remain a factor. Gryder has been aboard for his entire career, and trainer Craig Dollase has had a very nice meet to this point. Mixed signals for a horse that could go either way. 5-1
4 High Standards Yet another speedster, this one should be in it from the first jump. He's had an interesting two-part career: up until September of 2006 he bounced around all types of races, from claiming to graded events; following that, he was off for 15 months, and has come back like a different horse. If you throw out his awful showing in the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream, he's got a pair of wins and a second and a third. Maybe it's the Polytrack, where he's run his best. Always offers value at the windows, too, and could once again Saturday. 8-1
5 Street Boss Likely favorite should have this race set up perfectly for him. As of late, he has dropped further back in his races and finished with a strong closing move. That would be the ideal setup here, since there is plenty of speed to his inside. He had some trouble in the Los Angeles Handicap (GIII), which might have been part of the reason he was so far back to begin with. No matter what the cause, he's won four of five starts and is the one wearing the target. Beat him to claim victory. 9-5
6 Global Hunter (ARG) This is a tough one to figure with only two races in this country. A multiple graded winner in his homeland, he ran well in the Mervyn LeRoy (GII) in his first start here, but had nothing in the Metropolitan (GI) at Belmont. In Argentina, he ran at a mile or longer most of the time, so not sure if this is his preferred distance. Connections try another top level race, so it's obvious they haven't lost confidence. Take a look in the paddock see if he looks ready for the test. 15-1
7 Medzendeekron Medzendeekron has been scratched from the Triple Bend. SCR

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